Originally published on: October 15, 2024
In the world of decentralized prediction markets, former President Donald Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the 2024 US presidential election. According to Polymarket, Trump’s odds of winning have surpassed Harris’ by 13 points as of October 15th, marking a significant shift from previous months.
Many believe that decentralized prediction markets are more accurate in predicting election outcomes than traditional polling methods. Even billionaire Elon Musk has expressed support for Trump, citing his potential to be more innovation-friendly towards the crypto space.
Despite the focus on the election’s potential impact on the crypto industry, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, believes that the outcome will not significantly affect Bitcoin. Fink stated during BlackRock’s earnings call that Bitcoin is its own asset class that can transcend global politics, emphasizing the importance of liquidity and transparency in driving crypto adoption.
The upcoming US elections have seen a significant surge in betting volume on prediction markets, with a 565.4% increase in Q3 reaching $3.1 billion across major platforms. Polymarket remains a dominant player in the market, with over 99% market share and a significant portion of its volume driven by bets on the US presidential election.
As the election draws near, the stakes are high, and investors are closely watching the race between Trump and Harris. Despite the speculation surrounding the candidates’ impact on the crypto industry, BlackRock’s Fink believes that Bitcoin will continue to thrive regardless of the election outcome.
