Originally published on: October 24, 2024
Polymarket has uncovered the identity of the mystery trader responsible for $28 million in pro-Trump trading positions on their platform. The trader, an unnamed French citizen with a strong background in finance and trading, utilized accounts under the names Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie.
Despite initial concerns of market manipulation, Polymarket’s investigation found no evidence of foul play. The trader strategically spread his bets across smaller positions to prevent any drastic market movements.
When contacted by Polymarket, the individual claimed that the positions were driven by personal sentiment regarding the outcome of the 2024 United States presidential election. It was confirmed that the election odds displayed on Polymarket aligned with those seen on other competing platforms.
The debate surrounding Polymarket’s election odds was put to rest by Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour. Mansour insisted that the odds reflected genuine market sentiment and were not manipulated. Data from Kalshi supported Polymarket’s findings, showing Trump with a lead over Harris in the presidential race.
Trump’s odds on Polymarket experienced a significant surge in early October, following a period of close competition with Harris. The lead held by Vice President Harris began to diminish in late August, leading to a tight race between the two candidates.
While critics question the accuracy and reliability of prediction markets like Polymarket, supporters argue that these platforms provide a more authentic reflection of election sentiment compared to traditional polls. Traders are incentivized by financial gain, making prediction markets a valuable tool for gauging public sentiment.
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