Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Trump Odds Surge on Polymarket, Raising Manipulation Concerns

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Originally published on: October 18, 2024

A recent surge in former President Donald Trump’s odds for winning the 2024 United States presidential election on Polymarket has sparked concerns about potential manipulation within the decentralized prediction market.

One prominent Polymarket user, known as “Fredi9999,” has been identified as a key player behind Trump’s rising odds, holding over $20 million in pro-Trump bets. This revelation comes as Trump’s odds hit a record high of 60.2% on Oct. 16, leading many to question the accuracy of the market’s predictions.

With less than three weeks until Election Day, the spotlight is on evaluating the integrity of prediction markets like Polymarket. Founder and CEO of Peanut Trade, Alex Momot, emphasized the importance of addressing any signs of manipulation before the election.

According to analysis by political bettor Domer, Fredi’s significant influence on Trump’s prediction market, along with suspicious transaction patterns, suggests a potential effort to sway the odds in Trump’s favor. Concerns have been raised about the source of funds and motives behind these large-scale bets.

Despite these manipulation concerns, some, like billionaire Elon Musk, believe in the accuracy of decentralized prediction markets in forecasting election results. Musk’s recent endorsement of Trump further complicates the discussion surrounding predictive accuracy.

While Trump’s odds have also risen on traditional betting platforms, Polymarket remains a focal point for the debate on the legitimacy of predictions. As the election draws near, all eyes are on the evolving dynamics of the prediction market and its potential impact on the outcome of the presidential race.

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