Originally published on: November 01, 2024
Kalshi, the prediction marketplace, has introduced a range of new political betting markets just before the United States presidential election. This move aims to attract more users and increase engagement as the election draws near.
Covering various events such as the outcome of an Ohio referendum and the last state to be called in the presidential race by the Associated Press (AP), Kalshi’s new contracts bring a fresh perspective to political betting. According to regulatory filings with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), these contracts have gained significant traction since their launch.
Since October 31, Kalshi has added over two dozen contracts, mostly centered around the upcoming US elections. This expansion allows traders to bet on election outcomes, including the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Kalshi’s flagship market, “Who will win the Presidential election?” has seen over $144 million in total betting volume since its launch on October 7, indicating strong user interest. The odds have been dynamic, with Trump initially holding a significant lead but now facing a more competitive race, according to recent data.
While Kalshi is making strides in the prediction market space, it faces tough competition from platforms like Polymarket. The latter, built on the Polygon network, boasts nearly $2.9 billion wagered on the November presidential election as of November 1, with a higher confidence in Trump’s victory.
To cater to a broader audience, Kalshi started accepting deposits in USD Coin (USDC), a stablecoin popular among crypto users. This strategic move aims to attract more crypto-native traders, tapping into a growing market segment.
Additionally, other platforms like Robinhood have also introduced election prediction contracts, signaling the rising popularity of political betting among retail investors. Despite regulatory concerns about the impact of prediction markets on elections, these platforms often provide a more accurate reflection of public sentiment than traditional polls.
As the US elections approach, the prediction market landscape is evolving rapidly, with Kalshi at the forefront of innovation. Stay tuned for more updates and insights on betting opportunities and trading strategies. Subscribe to our newsletter for critical market insights delivered every Monday.
