Originally published on: October 17, 2024
Bitcoin’s price has been on a slow decline over the past 24 hours, leading to speculation that the recent peak at $68,500 might have been the top for now.
Several factors are pointing towards this being a local high for Bitcoin. During the first quarter rally, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, with the aggregated spot volume cumulative delta (CVD) showing a significant increase, indicating strong buying pressure from retail investors on major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, OKX, and Bybit.
However, in the current bullish phase, the aggregated spot volume CVD has been decreasing, suggesting that retail investors are selling at higher price levels. According to onchain analyst XBTManager, Bitcoin is now facing a critical resistance level where a decision must be made on the next move.
Recent analysis shows a weakening of demand on exchanges, with prices potentially pulling back to the $63,000-$64,000 range. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju highlights that the Bitcoin estimated futures leverage ratio has reached an all-time high, indicating an overleveraged market across various crypto derivatives, including USDT pairs with Ethereum and Tron.
While overleveraged futures are common in bullish markets, some experts, like crypto researcher Axel Adler Jr, warn of a potential volatility shakeout in either direction. This uncertainty is compounded by historical patterns that show a bearish divergence with Bitcoin’s RSI and MACD line following each attempt to break above key resistance levels.
If these indicators fail to show a new high, Bitcoin could see a significant price drop of up to 25%. However, a bullish scenario could unfold if RSI, MACD, or both indicators form higher highs, signaling a positive outlook for BTC.
In conclusion, the recent rally to $68,500 may indeed be the Uptober top for Bitcoin, but as the market navigates through these uncertain times, the future direction remains unclear. Stay tuned for more updates on the latest developments in the world of cryptocurrency.
