Originally published on: November 13, 2024
As the year comes to a close, the Bitcoin market is gearing up for the much-anticipated $11.8 billion options expiry scheduled for Dec 27 at 8:00 am UTC. Recent data suggests a bullish trend in favor of call options, although bears could minimize their losses if they manage to keep Bitcoin’s price below $75,000.
According to data from Laevitas, the total open interest for call options is currently at $7.9 billion, surpassing put options at $3.92 billion. This significant difference is attributed to Bitcoin’s impressive 29% surge since October, rendering most put options ineffective.
Deribit leads the options market with a commanding 74% share, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Binance at 10.3%, outpacing OKX at 4.3%.
With bulls and bears vying for control over Bitcoin’s spot price of $90,472, the outcome of the expiry will largely depend on the distribution of options at different strike prices as the deadline approaches.
The recent victory of President-elect Donald Trump has injected a sense of optimism among investors, particularly due to his pro-crypto stance that includes plans to overhaul the SEC and support cryptocurrency-friendly legislators.
For the December options expiry, the total open interest amounts to $11.8 billion, with a recent surge pushing Bitcoin above $80,000 and catching bearish investors off guard.
Looking ahead to Dec 27, if Bitcoin maintains its price near $88,000, only a marginal $96 million of put options will remain active. The limited downside exposure underscores the impact of Bitcoin trading above critical levels at expiry.
To secure a positive outcome, bears need to drive Bitcoin’s price down towards $74,500, while bulls could capitalize on gains by pushing BTC to $90,500 before the expiry date. The prevailing options market data points towards sustained bullish momentum for Bitcoin heading into the new year.
With various scenarios playing out based on the current trend, investors are closely monitoring the options market for cues on Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Stay informed with the latest insights and subscribe to our Markets Outlook newsletter for critical updates on investment opportunities and trading strategies.
