Originally published on: October 09, 2024
Bitcoin’s recent push above $63,000 was seen as a positive sign, but analysts are now warning that the cryptocurrency may be on “delicate ground.” Glassnode analysts have pointed out that a key onchain metric indicates that BTC is teetering on the edge.
After bouncing back from a low of $59,850 on Oct. 3 to a high of $64,444 on Oct. 7, Bitcoin managed to surpass its short-term holder (STH) cost basis of $62,500. However, failing to hold above this level could spell trouble for recent buyers.
In an Oct. 8 report, Glassnode highlighted that Bitcoin’s spot price in relation to the true-market mean and the active investor price is crucial in determining market trends. While the spot price has stayed above these levels, experts are keeping a close watch on the situation.
Using the UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) tool, analysts found that the current cost basis of circulating BTC is concentrated between $52,000 and $63,000. This means that even small price fluctuations could impact a significant number of investors.
The URPD chart shows a cluster around the STH cost basis, with supply nodes between the true-market mean and active investor price. Potential “air gaps” near critical price levels suggest areas of interest in case of a sharp downward movement.
Despite these warning signs, analysts believe that the delicate nature of the market could ultimately favor the bulls. While the situation remains uncertain, investors are advised to conduct thorough research before making any decisions.
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