Originally published on: November 04, 2024
As the United States presidential election approaches, the Bitcoin (BTC) market is on edge, with polls showing a close race between Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Analysts are now sharing bold predictions for Bitcoin’s future as the election drama unfolds.
According to experts at Bernstein, if Trump secures the election victory, Bitcoin’s price could skyrocket to $80,000-90,000. This optimistic outlook is largely driven by Trump’s vocal support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. He has openly advocated for the US to lead the cryptocurrency industry and has proposed several crypto-friendly policies, such as appointing a supportive SEC chair and establishing a national Bitcoin reserve.
Bernstein’s prediction is supported by fractal analysis, which shows that Bitcoin has historically surged to new all-time highs following US presidential elections, especially after halving events that occur every four years. For instance, after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin skyrocketed from $12 to $1,150 by late 2013, a remarkable increase of nearly 9,500%.
Similarly, in 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin experienced significant price surges following halving events. This pattern suggests that Bitcoin’s price could continue to rise in the aftermath of the recent halving, potentially reaching $80,000-90,000 in the near future.
Market analyst Miles Deutscher believes that regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin is poised to reach $100,000 or more. However, the trajectory and timing of this growth may vary depending on who wins the election.
On the other hand, there are concerns that a Harris victory could trigger a “dump” in the Bitcoin market due to fears of increased regulatory scrutiny on cryptocurrencies. This sentiment is reflected in the growing Polymarket bids on a Bitcoin price crash in November.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the election, historical data shows that November has traditionally been a profitable month for Bitcoin, with an average return of 46% since 2013. Analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential upside in the coming weeks, especially with the US Federal Reserve meeting on November 7, where a rate cut is expected.
While Bitcoin’s price has seen some fluctuations in the past week, traders are closely monitoring the market ahead of the election. As the drama unfolds, investors should conduct their own research and stay informed about potential risks and opportunities in the cryptocurrency market.
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