Originally published on: October 01, 2024
Bitcoin saw a slight dip of 3.45% on Sept. 30, missing out on a monthly bullish engulfing candle for the first time in nearly two years. Despite this, there is still optimism surrounding the leading cryptocurrency, with a year-long bull flag indicating a potential bullish breakout once Bitcoin closes above $68,000-$70,000 on the monthly chart.
One Bitcoin researcher, Smithson With, has introduced a novel way to predict Bitcoin’s cycle top price using a quantile regression model. This innovative model focuses on presenting quantiles or percentiles based on all cumulative BTC data to analyze Bitcoin returns over time, considering factors like supply, volatility, distribution over time, and survivability in various risk environments.
Unlike traditional linear regression models, quantile regression provides a deeper insight by focusing on extremes, like the 99th percentile in this case. With’s simulation of a 99th percentile power-law regression model dating back to July 2013 suggests a potential cycle top price of around $275,000 by November 2025.
Bitcoin’s current price recovery to $64,000 after dropping to $62,825 on Sept. 30 indicates resilience in the market. Trading platform Exocharts’ lead analyst, Luckshury, suggests that Bitcoin’s uptrend will likely continue if the key support at $63,200 holds. The point-of-control (POC) based on recent uptrend formation at $63,200 is crucial, with a move above the immediate resistance at $64,700 signaling a potential bullish trend continuation.
While these insights are valuable, it’s important to note that this article does not provide investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and evaluation before making any investment or trading decisions.
