Originally published on: October 23, 2024
Kalshi, a prediction marketplace, has recently broadened its offerings to include contracts for betting on election outcomes worldwide. With political wagers on the rise, especially leading up to the upcoming US presidential election in November, Kalshi is tapping into the growing demand for diverse political betting options.
According to regulatory filings with the Commodity Future Trading Commissions (CFTC), Kalshi now covers national races in various countries, from Australia to Ecuador. Additionally, new markets for the 2025 elections in Canada and Ireland have been added to Kalshi’s platform, complementing their existing selection of election betting markets, which include contracts tied to the upcoming US federal elections.
Kalshi’s flagship market, “Who will win the Presidential election?,” has seen a substantial betting volume of $52 million since its launch on October 7. The platform introduced over a dozen new contracts on October 21, further expanding its offerings and attracting more users.
In a significant move that marked a pivotal moment for election prediction markets in the US, Kalshi listed event contracts for betting on US election outcomes on October 7, following a successful court battle in September. This milestone sets the stage for other platforms, like Polymarket, to enter the arena, opening up new opportunities for political betting enthusiasts.
While the CFTC has raised concerns about the integrity of election prediction markets, industry analysts argue that these platforms often provide a more accurate reflection of public sentiment compared to traditional polls. Statistics professor Harry Crane from Rutgers University emphasized the value of event contract markets as a public good and refuted allegations of widespread manipulation or misuse for illicit purposes.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, with elections scheduled in over 75 countries worldwide in 2024 and beyond, platforms like Kalshi are poised to play a crucial role in shaping the future of political betting. Stay tuned for more updates and insights on the latest trends in election predictions and market developments. Subscribe to the Markets Outlook newsletter to receive exclusive content, investment tips, and trading strategies every Monday. Join us in the journey towards profitable and informed decision-making in the dynamic world of political betting.