Originally published on: October 16, 2024
Kalshi, a prediction marketplace, has seen a surge in event contracts related to United States political outcomes since its groundbreaking court victory in September. These event contracts, which are winner-take-all binary options, allow traders to bet on a variety of outcomes, including the US presidential election, Senate races, cabinet appointments, and even potential resignations.
Since October 7, Kalshi’s flagship market, “Who will win the Presidential election?” has recorded a staggering $14 million in total betting volume, showcasing the growing interest in political betting. Despite this growth, Kalshi still trails behind Polymarket, a decentralized prediction marketplace that has hosted nearly $2 billion in bets tied to the US presidential race.
Kalshi’s legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2023 paved the way for the exchange to list political event contracts. While the CFTC raised concerns about the integrity of election prediction markets, industry analysts argue that these markets provide valuable insights into public sentiment.
In a show of confidence in these prediction markets, Bloomberg LP added Polymarket’s election odds data to its popular Terminal platform. This move highlights the increasing importance of prediction markets in the financial industry.
As the US election draws near, betting odds on Kalshi and Polymarket favor different candidates, reflecting the diverse opinions of bettors. While Kalshi pegs Republican nominee Donald Trump’s odds at 55%, Polymarket’s bettors are even more bullish on him, giving him a 58% chance of winning.
With the popularity of political betting on the rise, prediction marketplaces like Kalshi and Polymarket are reshaping how we engage with and analyze election outcomes. Stay informed on the latest trends in blockchain and crypto with our Crypto Biz newsletter, delivering key business insights every Thursday. Subscribe today to gain a competitive edge in the market.