Originally published on: December 18, 2024
As the anticipation for the inauguration of Donald Trump as the President of the United States in January 2025 builds up, the cryptocurrency market is abuzz with positive expectations. However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has thrown a curveball with his cautious outlook.
Hayes, in his recent blog post titled “Trump Truth,” warns against the overly optimistic projections regarding rapid crypto policy changes under the new administration. He points out the disconnect between market exuberance and the time-consuming nature of policy implementations.
The founder of investment fund Maelstrom plans to strategically trim some positions early on, with the intention to buy back at lower prices in the first half of 2025. While many market forecasters predict the establishment of national Bitcoin reserves, Hayes remains skeptical about such developments materializing anytime soon.
In his post, Hayes highlights the unrealistic expectations placed on the Trump administration to deliver immediate economic and political transformations in the crypto sphere. He suggests that any significant policy shifts would require more time to materialize than the market currently anticipates.
Hayes foresees a turbulent period around Trump’s inauguration day, possibly resulting in a market downturn before entering what he calls a “crack-up-boom phase” later in 2025. As a proactive measure, Maelstrom will adjust its position by selling certain assets early to capitalize on potential lower prices.
According to Hayes, long-term investors should be prepared for a series of market fluctuations as the bull market progresses. While recent market rallies have pushed Bitcoin to new heights, reaching over $100,000 for the first time in history, Hayes remains cautious about the short-term outlook.
While many experts foresee a bullish trajectory for Bitcoin and decentralized finance under the new administration, Hayes’s contrarian stance offers a valuable perspective amidst the prevailing optimism. As the market awaits Trump’s inauguration, the stage is set for a potentially eventful beginning to 2025 in the crypto space.
