Originally published on: November 19, 2022
Bitcoin’s latest trajectory has veered drastically off course from the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model predictions, marking an unprecedented deviation in its price growth.
Amid the ongoing BTC price suppression fueled by the FTX scandal, the bearish trend has intensified, impacting various facets of the Bitcoin network, including miners and key metrics.
The S2F model, once highly acclaimed until Bitcoin’s previous all-time high, is now under scrutiny as current price forecasts far exceed the spot price. The model, which leverages block subsidy halving events to forecast exponential price growth, is experiencing its most substantial price deviation to date.
According to S2F Multiple analysis, Bitcoin should be valued at over $72,000 by November 19, with a multiple of -1.47. Recent data reveals a record negative multiple of -1.5 on November 10, coinciding with the FTX crisis.
An alternative analysis by LookIntoBitcoin echoes the same conclusion, indicating a substantial divergence from the S2F line.
Despite mounting criticism and skepticism, including accusations of fraudulence, PlanB, the creator of the S2F model, remains resolute in its defense. He dismisses the impact of the FTX incident as a mere blip in the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin.
While the model’s deviation raises concerns, PlanB asserts that having a broader price range to validate the model’s insights is more beneficial than no guidance at all.
As Bitcoin grapples with unprecedented price discrepancies, the debate over the S2F model’s reliability continues, raising questions about its efficacy amid market turbulence.
