Originally published on: August 21, 2024
Bitcoin has had an impressive start to the year 2024, with a significant 40% increase in its price. This surge can be attributed to various positive factors such as the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US and the halving event that cut down BTC rewards for miners by 50%.
In a departure from past trends, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs even before the halving, leading many industry analysts to speculate about a potential ‘supercycle’ within the current halving year.
Now, over 123 days have passed since the halving, and Bitcoin’s price is yet to surpass its previous all-time high. With a 13% drop in the last month and a 14% dip over 30 days, experts are debating whether Bitcoin will initiate a significant rally during the final quarter of 2024.
Veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt has suggested that this market cycle could be the lengthiest post-halving cycle so far. The ongoing debate questions whether a new all-time high is on the horizon or if it’s simply not in the cards for now.
Historical data from CoinGlass indicates positive returns for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter during halving years, with gains of 58% in 2016 and a staggering 168% increase in 2020. Additionally, Bitcoin has posted positive returns in eight out of the eleven years between 2013 and 2023, with average gains of 88%.
Based on historical trends, there is a 73% likelihood that Bitcoin will see a rally in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Ki Young Ju, founder, and CEO of CryptoQuant, has analyzed Bitcoin’s price behavior during the 2020 halving and noted that the rally began in Q4. Ju believes that Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase, hinting at a potential parabolic uptrend once the last quarter of 2024 kicks in.
Despite forming higher lows, Bitcoin’s price has struggled to breach the 200-day EMA in recent days. The IOMAP model by IntoTheBlock highlights tough resistance levels for Bitcoin’s recovery, indicating a need for high demand-side liquidity to push the price above key levels.
If the momentum falters, analyst Mark Cullen warns of a possible drop towards $57,500 or even lower to revisit the $54,500 level.
This article is not investment advice but a reflection of current market trends and expert opinions. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any decisions. Stay informed about potential investment opportunities and industry insights by subscribing to our Markets Outlook newsletter.
