Originally published on: October 01, 2024
Bitcoin experienced a 3.45% drop on Sept. 30, missing out on a bullish engulfing candle for the first time in years. However, a year-long bull flag suggests a bullish breakout is imminent if BTC closes above $68,000-$70,000 on the monthly chart.
A groundbreaking study by Bitcoin researcher Smithson With introduces a new quantile regression model to predict Bitcoin’s cycle top price. This innovative approach analyzes cumulative BTC data, including supply, volatility, distribution over time, and survivability in various risk environments to determine percentiles and quantiles.
Unlike traditional linear regression, quantile regression focuses on extremes, particularly the 99th percentile, offering deeper insights into potential outcomes. With’s simulation predicts a cycle top around November 2025 with a staggering price target of $275,000.
If deviations can be channeled through a decay period and evaluated for multiple percentiles, further analysis may confirm a cycle top value between $250,000-$300,000 in 2025.
Bitcoin quickly rebounded to $64,000 after a minor dip, with trading platform Exocharts’ lead Luckshury emphasizing the importance of key support at $63,200. A move above the immediate overhead resistance at $64,700 could signal the next bullish leg up, while failure to hold $63,200 may trigger a correction period.
This article provides critical insights into Bitcoin’s price potential but does not offer investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct their own research before making financial decisions. Stay informed with the latest market trends by subscribing to our newsletter for exclusive content every Monday.
